Some of you have voiced some anxiety about our well being in the face of Hurricane Arthur. We really appreciate your concern, but there is nothing to get too worried about.
We have been monitoring the reports and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and, despite what the Weather Channel might be saying, the northern Chesapeake should not see too many effects from Arthur. The latest models have the hurricane picking up speed and beginning to move in a more northeasterly direction, which will have it further away from the coast by the time it gets into our area sometime tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center is also predicting that we have only a five percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) and a zero percent chance of 50 knot
or more winds from the storm. By comparison, just last night a nasty thunderstorm ripped up the Sassafras River, where we are anchored in a fairly well protected cove, delivering 40+ mph winds for about 15-20 minutes before it subsided. While I was standing in the companionway the whole time making sure our anchor held, in all reality we were in no danger. So, unless the projections dramatically change, we will be just fine through the night tonight and into tomorrow.
Actually, what we are more concerned about – and what causes us some consternation a couple times a week – are the localized thunderstorms that are predicted to roll through the area later this evening. Some of these can bring extremely heavy rain and, more importantly for our purposes, short periods of intense winds. We experienced a particularly extreme one of these while we were chartering in Charlotte Harbor, Florida, but made it through. And, I imagine, we will be just fine should another nasty one come through, which will happen eventually, while we are on Bear.